Steep 17 pct fall in H1 retail sales, bleak Q3 forecast predicted

Retail sales for the first half of 2024 tumbled 17.5 percent from a year earlier, despite a 96 percent recovery compared to 2019.

According to the Statistics and Census Service, the year-over-year decline is attributed to a high comparison base associated with an outburst of pent-up spending power in early 2023.

Telecoms equipment suffered the biggest loss – down 39.4 percent, while watches slid 24.6 percent.

Accessories such as clocks, jewelry, and leather goods saw their sales plummet 23.5 percent from a year earlier.

The wider loss is also due to a year-on-year drop of 23 percent in retail sales in the second quarter. All the above segments saw falls of 33 percent, 31 percent, and 30 percent, respectively.

However, vehicles saw an increase of 6.8 percent.

The Q2 sales shed nearly 22 percent from the preceding quarter, which saw some MOP20.7 billion (US$2.6 billion).

Q3 Outlook

A survey conducted by government statisticians has painted a grim picture, with over 49 percent of respondents expecting a further decline ahead.

Only 8.4 percent predicted growth, while the remainder expected the sales volume to stay unchanged.

In terms of prices, 70 percent of those surveyed believed they would stay steady compared to the previous year.

Over half of the respondents believed that a business slowdown could be possible from the second quarter of the year.